From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”